An Atlantic Century?

In the aftermath of the recent economic crises, we are beginning to see the rise of the US and the slow stabilization of Europe.  Additionally, both are moving closer together demonstrated most recently in Obama’s State of the Union address in which he mentioned the Transatlantic Free Trade Pact, a deal between the United States and the European Union that would lower barriers to trade.  Some such as Anne-Marie Slaughter, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton, think that the world may be moving towards an "Atlantic Century", a period in which the world economy is dominated by trade over the Atlantic primarily between the Americas and Europe.  This is a seemingly tough case to make, especially with the rapid economic growth of Asian countries such as China and India.

However, in regard to increasing energy production in the Americas, there are numerous estimates that indicate that the U.S. and Europe will become decreasingly dependent on oil and natural gas imports from Russia and the Middle East.  First off, the U.S. has already taken over Russia as the world's largest gas producer and is expected to increase production significantly in the coming decade.  At a recent conference in Munich, US Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Carlos Pascual projected that the U.S. will be able to import all of its energy needs from within the Americas by 2030.  Another estimate by the German Intelligence Agency predicts that the U.S. could start to export oil and gas by 2020.  In addition to the U.S., other countries in the Americas with large energy deposits include Mexico, Argentina, and Venezuela. 

This could have huge geopolitical implications. China would likely take the position that the U.S. currently holds as the world's number one energy importer, making it increasingly dependent on the Middle East.  If the U.S. enjoys such energy independence it might have less tolerance for the repressive oil-exporting regimes it once relied on.  Also, if Europe were to import its gas from the Americas, it could be sold to Ukraine in the case that Russia restricts the flow of gas to Ukraine for political reasons. 

It will take some time for any of this to unfold, but we are already seeing imminent signs of growing power in Atlantic relations.  The Transatlantic Free Trade Pact announced by Obama is only the beginning of the process, though there is ample evidence that such an agreement would have little economic impact due to the already low trade barriers between the EU and the U.S.  Regardless, it will be interesting to see if this century turns out to be the proposed "Atlantic Century".