This could all come to an end soon though. The US may quit supporting North Korea soon due to their continued proliferation and testing of nuclear weapons. Some argue that these are just being tested to grab the attention of the US, this is similar to an annoying child that won't settle down. If they want help from the US then they need to be willing to work with us. So how do we get the change we want to see in North Korea and help the citizens living there? An article from the Economist on the 9th of this month said it could happen naturally.
This natural transition could come as the black market in North Korea develops. Due to Kim Jong Uns massive military spending the people of North Korea are not able to get many of the items they need to survive. In order to live a lot of them get the necessities they need via the black market. This black market runs between both North Korea and China, as well as with South Korea. Through this new market some citizens are gaining wealth, wealth that had once been reserved for the Jong family and their inner circles. Now that others are getting trade from other countries and seeing the living conditions in their neighbors, a regime change could come sooner than later.
China has much more to worry about if a regime change were to take place as they share a border along the Yalu river. If China were to quit sending aid and the regime collapsed they would most likely experience a massive influx of refugees unless South Korea were able to quickly act and unify the peninsula, as is their goal.
So obviously Kim Jong Un needs to change the countries current trajectory. There may not be a quick and easy way to do this. As most leaders have already stated, he needs to reduce his military spending and get rid of his nuclear weapons. This would make more countries apt to provide food and economic aid, but how might he attract more foreign direct investment into his country given his track record? One thing is for certain, it will be interesting to see what happens north of the 38th parallel in the coming months.
I think the one thing holding us back from putting tougher sanctions on North Korea is their only ally, China. China's government does not want unrest between the Koreas because it will attract refugees to China. If North Korea keeps developing these weapons, other countries in the area may start developing similar weapons for defense. This would make China not as powerful in terms of nuclear power. Hopefully this will give China incentive to talk North Korea out of making these weapons so they can focus on making their citizens lives better.
ReplyDeleteAs North Korea is an unpredictable state actor, it's fair to assume that China's priorities lie in maintaining peace and stability in the region. According to the 1961 Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, China is obliged to assist North Korea against unprovoked aggression. But considering the dismal state of N.K.'s economy and relatively little benefit China derives from supporting Kim Jong Un's regime, I predict that Beijing will eventually take a stronger stance against North Korea's nuclear program. For other foreign nations have a larger effect on China's national interests, and if maintaining those means stepping up against Pyongyang, China will most likely be willing to take that risk.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, it seems that any means for negotiation seem impractical since North Korea continually breaks UN regulations and ignores warnings from other powers like China, Japan, and the US. For years, the US has relied on the UN diplomacy, partner countries in the region, and appeasement. Even though China is a critical player in the region and an important ally with North Korea, I think that the US should also develop a new strategy towards North Korea that would yield better results. A joint effort by both China and the US on developing a foreign policy objective together is key.
ReplyDeleteA recent article in the New York Times reported on a private trip to North Korea led by Bill Richardson the former governor of New Mexico. Accompanying him was Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt. The North Korean state run news agency called the group the Google delegation. Could this be a sign of North Korea’s future intention of opening up the internet to its population? If so, I believe that it would be a mirror image of China’s internet infrastructure with the Great Firewall controlling what type of information is made available to the North Korean public. This could also be the first step in North Korea’s intention in replicating the Chinese model.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that North Korea is in a decaying orbit in which its current authoritarian power structure will inevitably crumble. Due to the elite that legitimate Kim Jong Uns' rule and the ever increasing pressure south of the 38th parallel, the threat of a Nuclear option is the regime's most forceful diplomatic choice for immediate survival. Unfortunately for Kim Jong Un, this will only lead to more sanctions from the US/majority of the world, which will lead to an influx of more black markets, which may lead to more threats of nuclear testing, and more sanctions etc etc... The best course of action would be to gradually increase Kim's selectorate (include the black market merchants) without risking upheaval from the military/revolutionary elites.
ReplyDeleteNorth Korea's situation is just such a crazy concept. On a humanitarian level I feel most of us agree that we wish it would all just work itself out. Politically and economically, I am under the impression that China and South Korea do not want the current regime to collapse because of the reasons you already mentioned. The optimist in me hopes that the regime will slowly unravel and the people will gain control, but while hoping for the best I assume the worst which is that the regime will retain its hold right until some sort of bloody implosion. Like you explained already, people will respond to the oppression of a government like Un's until they begin to starve to death. When you are going to die of starvation or lack of other basic needs like medicine then fear of death by the government loses its bite. While the government can feed its armed forces I think it can retain control. Once the troops stop being fed is when internal war may break out. So a complete lack of food aid may lead to that. On the other hand, like you mentioned a healthy line of black market goods could empower the citizenry to take over instead. I fear that the middle ground is what Un would prefer, enough black market goods to keep the people satiated but no more. How long could the inner circle hold on? Maybe indefinitely?
ReplyDeletePeter has a similar notion to what I think the answer is in dealing with the nuclear threat in North Korea. The United States and China have to reach an effective foreign policy that deals with North Korea. If the United States and China come up with a policy that effectively puts pressure on North Korea to disgard its Nuclear program this would be an important step forward. Also if the black market capitalistic traders of North Korea undermine the the autocratic form of government in North Korea by introducing the country to free trade, this would contribute towards a progressive transition. China understandably does not want to see a regime change because of the instability that result in the region with the shared border along the Yalu river between China and Korea. A new policy that is formulated between the United States and China could result in Kim Jong Un possibly giving up his Nuclear ambitions and using some of the government spending on the needs of the people. It's a lot to hope for when the tradition in North Korean leadership has been oppression but with enough pressure from the the worlds superpowers North Korea may change their ways slowly in a positive direction.
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