With Pyongyang's latest threat to test a long range nuclear missile by next Wednesday, the Korean peninsula along with the entire global community has entered a state of heightened tension not seen since the close of the Cold War. Even if this is no more than posturing on the part of Kim Jong-un, the Obama administration will have to proceed with caution diplomatically in order to avoid further escalation of the situation. In a recent article in Foreign Policy, Michael Dobbs applied the lessons learned from the Cuban missile crisis to the present conflict in North Korea. According to Dobbs, the most prudent course of action would be to let North Korea defeat itself economically just as the Soviet Union did in the late 1980's. Matching North Korea's threats with our own military flexing may just push everyone closer to the nuclear precipice. A slow economic demise on the other hand could solve the problem all by itself.
This begs the question though, what is the current state of the North Korean economy? As many of you are probably already aware, it is pretty terrible by any standard. Whether this stems from their autarkic philosophy Juche ("self-reliance"), or from their well deserved label as a "pariah state", international trade is almost nonexistent in North Korea. As we learned from the beginning of class, a closed economy doesn't exactly make for the most efficient economy. Couple this with heavy central planning and the result is a rapidly decaying industrial base along with widespread agricultural famine.
Yet despite this economic isolation, foreign goods (even luxury items) still manage to enter the country (mainly for the political/ military elite). The trick to this as NPR's Planet Money reports is smuggling North Korean resources (including labor) in exchange for foreign currency. Since North Korea's currency, the won, is worthless outside the country (foreign government's don't trust its value since it is arbitrarily determined by Pyongyang), the government has to obtain foreign currencies in order to buy smuggled foreign goods. One way North Korea does this is by exploiting its large cheap labor force. The government actually contracts its own people to work in foreign countries, including South Korea (technically still at war)! Around 50,000 North Koreans work beyond the DMZ, yet they aren't paid directly by their employers. Instead the South Korean firms pay the North Korean government in US dollars, then the North Korean government pays its workers in won. Since the government directly controls the exchange rate between the US dollar and the won, the workers get very little of their original wage. Everybody wins...except the North Korean people who are literally starving.
Speaking of starvation, another source of foreign currency comes from North Korea's "illegal" industries which mainly consist of selling heroine and methamphetamines to global markets (after being smuggled through China). The reason I connect the this point to mass hunger is that heroine is derived from the poppy plant which requires arable land to grow. Thus for every acre of poppies the government decides to grow, they forgo an acre of potatoes.
Now I'm not sure if Dobb's claim that containing North Korea until things naturally crumble is the best solution, but the Democratic People's Repubic of Korea does seem especially unstable. If the people discover that they their wages are being garnished and their food is literally being turned into drug money in exchange for the elite to have luxury foreign good, then military intervention might not be necessary.
If their economy is already in such disarray than it is clear that they are not as concerned with their people as they are with military motive. Over the past few years North Korea has been testing new military options. They have not shown any sign of back down thus far even though it's people are starving. I do not think that Dobb's theory will work in this situation.
ReplyDeleteTime and time again does North Korea prove to be more bark than bite. It stands boldly against South Korea, but sends its labor to work there. It attests that the country is self-sufficient, but its population is struggling. I think the same goes for its threat regarding nuclear weaponry. Washington realizes that while North Korea may prove to be a threat to its neighbors, it does not threaten the United States in the same way. Parallels to the Cold War, as cited in the post, continue to reveal themselves--it is just a matter of how to deal with the situation that is being debated. In my opinion, I think Dobb's suggestion is valid. North Korea cannot sustain itself in this manner for much longer, especially all while threatening those it stands against. I agree that it will just be a matter of time before this situation "naturally crumbles" without the United States having to take action in the way we did during the Cold War.
ReplyDeleteJust a thought: If NK's currency is really just arbitrary and their economy really is so isolated, how do they afford to research nuclear weaponry and outfit their military? Where is it --actually-- getting its weapons? Is it using the same method you describe used by the military/political elite to "smuggle foreign goods"? NK could be using the US dollars, given to it by SK, to purchase weapons which are to be aimed right back at SK. What a mess....
ReplyDeleteRegarding Dobb's theory, I am in favor of any non-military approach to this situation. I think the containment of NK is a great idea, especially if it is feasible to ensure that the transfer of US currency from SK to NK is stopped. It'd also be great if we could make sure NK isn't able to buy anymore weapons from or sell drugs to China, but that's a whole different story in practice.
I agree with Dobb's suggestion to let North Korea destroy itself economically, in response to their recent threat to test nuclear missiles. With their economy under autarky, it seems almost impossible, as we have learned in class, that the country will be able to industrialize and develop into a powerful country. It is only a matter of time before the North Korean workers realize what is going on, and an uprising occurs. With the threatened launch date just around the corner, their are no drastic measures that can be done to stop the threat. The Obama Administration says that the US has a decent antimissile defense system, however it would take years to develop and efficient and reliable one. Personally I don't think North Korea will follow through with their threat to test nuclear missiles. One reason being that South Korea is allied with China and the United States, both of whom have far superior militaries than North Korea. So at this time I believe Dobb's suggestion to be the most feasible in response to North Korea's threat.
ReplyDeleteDobb's conclusion that economic, cultural, ideological forces, not military might, were responsible for the fall of the Soviet Union is certainly prudent. However, the collapse of the USSR did not immediately follow the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. It took another 30 years before the economic and political constraints imposed by communism triggered the Soviet downfall.
ReplyDeleteMore recently, North Korean rhetoric, at least in the past two decades, has always been inflammatory, and nonsensical. North Korea's one true friend in the world, China, is playing the same role that the USSR played during the Cuban crisis. Russian pressure on Cuba prevented Castro from starting a nuclear war, just as Chinese pressure on North Korea will do the same today.
I certainly agree with Dobb's report on current economic situation in North Korea. Even though North Korea has been autarky economy but some reports suggest that there is some trade with China as well. Cnn was also reporting about illegal activity such as drugs smuggling through China. As much as most of the people think that North Korea won't take action against it's neighbor such as China, or South Korea I would say there is every reason as why we should take that threat seriously. In the past North Korea have always pulled this strategy so that they can bargain with United Nations and other countries but we just don't know how Kim Jung Un is going to react. We don't know a lot about this man and when a leader who is so young has all the power in the world to do what he wants don't be surprised if he sure does some sort of nuclear missiles.
ReplyDeleteDobb's suggestion of letting North Korea defeat itself economically is a good suggestion for the following reasons. Any real change that would come out North Korea has to be internal. Any military intervention into North Korea would only strengthen the regime's message that their enemies are real. A real revolution will occur when the autarkic economy in North Korea crumbles further and the North Korean government is left rattling its sword all by itself because they don't have the means to legitimately threaten any other country. Once people of North Korea realize how bad the government is and that rest of the world has no intention of fighting with their people will there be a revolution. That is why Dobb's suggestion is a good one. Christopher Hitchens once joked about his trip to North Korea that it is almost as if someone snuck in a copy of Orwell's 1984 and was able to design an oppressive government as outlined in the book.
ReplyDeleteI think that the best solution for North Korea is for it to defeat itself economically. Not only is it currently the safest option for other states, but with the way that the economy is being run now, it will eventually be destroyed. The way that North Korea is running cannot be sustained forever. With an untested leader, it is in the best interests of everyone to let this situation destroy itself.
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